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Lesson 2: Measuring Development

ECON 317 · Economics of Development · Fall 2019

Ryan Safner
Assistant Professor of Economics
safner@hood.edu
ryansafner/devf19
devF19.classes.ryansafner.com

Is There Such a Thing as "Political Development"?

Example 1: Life in Medellin, Colombia I

Blattman, Christopher, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon, 2019, "Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized," Working Paper

Example 1: Life in Medellin, Colombia II

  • Historically, weak State presence into peripheries
  • Hillsides full of displaced people, immigrants, poor
  • Limited access to public goods (police, courts, services, etc)

Blattman, Christopher, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon, 2019, "Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized," Working Paper

Example 1: Life in Medellin, Colombia III

  • More than 300 local youth gangs
  • Began in low income neighborhoods
  • with business in illicit trade:
    • Protection rackets
    • Local trafficking
    • Moneylending, loan sharking
    • Voter "mobilization"

Blattman, Christopher, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon, 2019, "Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized," Working Paper

Example 1: Life in Medellin, Colombia IV

  • Gangs take on other "stately" roles:
    • Adjudicating disputes, enforcing property rights
    • Police against (outside) thieves
    • Local employment programs
    • Collecting "taxes" regularly

Blattman, Christopher, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon, 2019, "Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized," Working Paper

Example 1: Life in Medellin, Colombia V

  • Violence has been reduced and stabilized, with periodic flare ups

Blattman, Christopher, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon, 2019, "Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized," Working Paper

Example 1: Life in Medellin, Colombia VI

In what sense is Medellin "underdeveloped?"

Example 2: United States in the 18th-19th Century I

  • On the one hand:
    • Nation founded on principles that "all men are created equal" and endowed with "unalienable rights [to] life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness"
    • Vibrant "Town Hall" culture of civic participation in democracy and civil society
    • de Tocqueville: Americans have mastered "the art of association"

Example 2: United States in the 18th-19th Century II

  • On the other hand:
    • Revolution was led by elite land-owners, merchants, and some slave-owners
    • Voting restricted to a small number of male property owners

Example 2: United States in the 18th-19th Century III

Source: Wikipedia

Example 2: United States in the 18th-19th Century IV

  • U.S. States and Federal Government was clientelist1, no professional bureaucracy until the Pendelton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883

    • Political parties delegated public offices to political allies
  • Cities governed by "political machines"

    • Vote buying, fraud, intimidation

1 Also called "patronage" or "the spoils system".

Example 2: United States in the 18th-19th Century IV

Example 2: United States in the 18th-19th Century V

George Washington Plunkitt

1842-1924

EVERYBODY is talkin' these days about Tammany men growin' rich on graft, but nobody thinks of drawin' the distinction between honest graft and dishonest graft. There's all the difference in the world between the two. Yes, many of our men have grown rich in politics. I have myself. I've made a big fortune out of the game, and I'm gettin' richer every day, but I've not gone in for dishonest graft—blackmailin' gamblers, saloonkeepers, disorderly people, etc.—and neither has any of the men who have made big fortunes in politics.

There's an honest graft, and I'm an example of how it works. I might sum up the whole thing by sayin': "I seen my opportunities and I took 'em."

Plunkitt of Tammany Hall, Ch. 1

A Hypothesis to Consider

  • These are characteristics of "normal countries"

    • Middle-income, still industrializing economies
    • Endemic corruption, but can still be consistent with economic growth
      • "honest graft vs. dishonest graft?"
  • Note: "normal" "good" or "just"!

  • Democratic, politically free countries with open access and low corruption are a very new thing historically!

Shleifer, Andrei and Daniel Treisman, 2005, "A Normal Country: Russia after Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives 19(1): 151-174

Political Development and Economic Development I

  • Is a "developed country" politically developed?

  • What does that mean? Democracy?

  • Is democracy important for

    • economic development?
    • human flourishing?
    • (how do those two concepts overlap?)
  • If not (or not only) democracy, then what?

  • state capacity

Political Development and Economic Development II

Sources: Our World in Data: Democracy; Polity IV Data

Political Development and Economic Development III

Source: Our World in Data: Democracy

Political Development and Economic Development IV

Source: Our World in Data: Democracy

Political Development and Economic Development V

Source: Our World in Data: Democracy

Political Development and Economic Development VI

Freedom House, 2018, Freedom of the World

Political Development and Economic Development VII

Economic Freedom Score (2016) from Fraser Institute Data; Political Freedom Score from Freedom House Data

Political Development and Economic Development VIII

GDP per Capita (2018) from Gapminder; Political Freedom Score from Freedom House Data

Measuring Economic Development

What Do We Care About?

Among the major things, macroeconomists care about:

  1. Economic growth (rising GDP)

  2. A large working population (low unemployment rate)

  3. Stable purchasing power (low inflation rate)

The three most common macroeconomic measures of an economy's performance

We Might Also Care About...

  • Wealth (in)equality

  • Health outcomes

  • Life quality/satisfaction

  • Environmental quality

  • Political stability

  • Low corruption

  • Human and civil rights (especially for minority groups)

GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a year
    • market value, measured in current prices (dollars, euros, yen, etc.)
    • final goods and services
      • Avoid double-counting intermediate goods
      • Sales of used goods not included
    • produced within a year (new things only, nothing old)
    • measured within an individual country (inside the borders)
      • includes foreign nationals living here
      • does not include our citizens living abroad (see GNP below)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a year

Y=C+I+G+NX

  • Y: national income
  • C: consumption
  • I: investment
  • G: government spending
  • NX: net exports = exports (X)imports (M)

Gross National Income

  • Gross National Income (GNI)1: market value of all final goods and services produced by resources owned by a country's citizens both at home and abroad

    • i.e. take GDP and add production by Americans living abroad
  • Comparing GDP to GNP shows how much a nation's citizens' wealth comes from domestic vs. international sources

1 This used to be called Gross National Product (GNP).

GDP per Capita

  • GDP/GNI is a rough measure
    • If a tiny country and a large country have the same GDP, who is better off?
    • Want to weight GDP by the size of a country
  • GDP per capita is a measure of income per person1: GDP per capita=Gross Domestic ProductPopulation

  • A better measure of how the "average" person is doing in a country

1 Capita means person.

GDP per Capita II

Country "Income Levels"

The World Bank defines as of 1 July 2018 countries as being:

Income level GNI per capita
High income >12,055
Upper-middle income 3,89612,055
Middle income 9963,895
Low income 995

Country "Income Levels" II

Source: World Bank

Country "Income Levels" III

Source: World Bank

Comparing Across Countries I

  • To compare GDP across countries that use different currencies (e.g. Pounds, Euros, Yen, Yuan), we need a common denominator by using an exchange rate between currencies

  • Exchange Rates express the amount of one currency needed to convert to 1 unit of another

Comparing Across Countries I

  • To compare GDP across countries that use different currencies (e.g. Pounds, Euros, Yen, Yuan), we need a common denominator by using an exchange rate between currencies

  • Exchange Rates express the amount of one currency needed to convert to 1 unit of another

Example: 0.88 EUR:1 USD0.78 GBP:1 USD1.30 CAD:1 USD

Comparing Across Countries II

  • To calculate another country's GDP in US Dollars:

Other Country's GDP in USD=Other Country's GDP in Local CurrencyExchange Rate for 1 USD

Comparing Across Countries: Example

Example: Great Britain's GDP in 2018 is £2.307 trillion GBP. One USD ($) exchanges for 0.88 pounds sterling (£). Calculate British GDP in US Dollars.

Britain's GDP in USD=£2.307 trillion£0.88/$1 =$2.622 trillion 

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) I

  • Economists hypothesize that once converted to a common currency, prices should be roughly identical across countries, i.e. there should be purchasing power parity

e.g. whether you buy using Dollars in US or Euros in EU, you should get the same amount of goods on average

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) II

  • PPP is essentially an argument about arbitrage and the law of one price

Example:

  • Suppose a sweater in the U.S. costs 50 USD.

  • Suppose the exchange rate is 100 YEN: 1 USD

  • Then the price of the same sweater in Japan should be 5000 YEN

  • Otherwise, an arbitrage opportunity!

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) II

  • Ah, but transaction costs!

    • Transportation costs
    • Non-tradeable or transportable goods
    • Services?
    • Differences in institutions, culture, property rights
    • Baumol's "cost disease"
  • Example: A haircut of similar quality in Norway is $65, $5 in Mexico, and $1 in India

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) III

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) IV

  • Economists often use the Geary-Khamis dollar, aka the "international dollar" as the standard hypothetical unit

    • The purchasing power of a US Dollar at a specified year, such as the 2000 US Dollar
  • Again, main purpose is to make accurate comparisons of measures such as GDP per capita across countries

Quantifying Changes I

  • Several ways we can talk about how a measure changes over time, from time t1t2

  • Difference (Δ): the difference between the value at time t1 and time t2 Δt=t2t1

Quantifying Changes II

  • Several ways we can talk about how a measure changes over time, from time t1t2

  • Difference (Δ): the difference between the value at time t1 and time t2 Δt=t2t1

  • Relative Difference: the difference expressed in terms of the original value Δtt1=t2t1t1

    this becomes a proportion (± between 0 and 1)

Quantifying Changes III

  • Several ways we can talk about how a measure changes over time, from time t1t2

  • Difference (Δ): the difference between the value at time t1 and time t2 Δt=t2t1

  • Relative Difference: the difference expressed in terms of the original value Δtt1=t2t1t1

    this becomes a proportion (± between 0 and 1)

  • Percentage Change (Growth Rate): relative difference expressed as a percentage (± between 0 and 100%)

%Δ=Δtt1×100%=t2t1t1×100%

A Simple Example Growth Rate

Example: A country's GDP is $100 in 2017, and $120 in 2018. Calculate the country's GDP growth rate for 2018:

GDP Growth Rate2018=GDP2018GDP2017GDP2017×100%=120100100×100%=20100×100%=0.20×100%=20%

The Rule of 72 I

  • A good rule of thumb: years for economy to double

=72GDP Growth Rate

  • This is known as the Rule of 72*

* Different people use other numbers, like 70. The point is more to make mental calculations easily rather than accurately.

The Rule of 72 II

Example:

  • If our economy is growing at 2% per year, the economy doubles in 722=36 years

The Rule of 72 II

Example:

  • If our economy is growing at 2% per year, the economy doubles in 722=36 years

  • If our economy is growing at 3% per year, the economy doubles in 723=24 years

The Rule of 72 II

Example:

  • If our economy is growing at 2% per year, the economy doubles in 722=36 years

  • If our economy is growing at 3% per year, the economy doubles in 723=24 years

  • If our economy is growing at 4% per year, the economy doubles in 724=18 years

The Rule of 72 II

Example:

  • If our economy is growing at 2% per year, the economy doubles in 722=36 years

  • If our economy is growing at 3% per year, the economy doubles in 723=24 years

  • If our economy is growing at 4% per year, the economy doubles in 724=18 years

  • If our economy is growing at 6% per year, the economy doubles in 726=12 years

The Rule of 72 III

  • Growth rates are unbelievably important!

  • It makes all the difference in the world if we grow at 2% vs. 3% per year

    • Our economy would double in size in 36 vs. 24 years!
  • More importantly, growth compounds!

    • A 2% increase from 100 is an increase of 2
    • A 2% increase from 1000 is an increase of 20!

The Rule of 72 IV

Example: Suppose 2 countries start with the same GDP of $1 Trillion

  • Country A grows at 2% per year
  • Country B grows at 4% per year

  • After 72 years:

    • Country A doubles twice ($4 Trillion)
    • Country B doubles four times ($16 Trillion)
      • Country B is 4x as wealthy as Country A!

Limitations of GDP: Things Not Measured

  • GDP is a good but (like every other measure) an imperfect measure for social welfare and standard of living

  • Things NOT included in GDP:

    • Increase in leisure time
    • Social media, digital networks (aside from advertising)
    • Increase in nonmarket or domestic activities (housework, unpaid child care)

Limitations of GDP: Quality Improvements?

  • How do we measure improvements in quality, or new innovations?

Limitations of GDP: Shadow Economies I

  • GDP by definition cannot measure the shadow economy or the "informal sector"

  • A major component of developing countries' economies

  • Staggering numbers, % of recorded GDP:

    • Nigeria 1989-1990: 76%
    • Thailand 1989-1990: 71%
    • Russia 1994-1995: 41%
    • Norway 1989-1990: 9%

Schneider, Friedrich and Dominik H. Enste, 2000, "Shadow Economies: Sizes, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature 37(1): 77-114

Limitations of GDP: Shadow Economies II

  • Don't just think crime, drugs, and human trafficking!

  • For various reasons, many citizens of many countries do not have access to legal markets for goods and services

  • Resort to informal economies and black markets to exchange goods and services

Limitations of GDP: Shadow Economies II

A typical grocery store in Vilnius, Soviet-controlled Lithuania, 1990

The list of scarce items is practically endless. They are not permanently out of stock, but their appearance is unpredictable...Leningrad can be overstocked with cross-country skis and yet go several months without soap for washing dishes. In the Armenian capital of Yerevan, I found an ample supply of accordians but local people complained that they had gone for weeks without ordinary kitchen spoons or tea samovars. I knew a Moscow family that spent a frantic month hunting for a child’s potty while radios were a glut on the market...

In an economy of chronic shortages and carefully parceled-out privileges, blat is an essential lubricant of life. The more rank and power one has, the more blat one normally has ... each has access to things or services that are hard to get and that other people want or need.

Consumers: The Art of Queuing, in The Russians

Smith, Hedrick, 1976, The Russians

Limitations of GDP: Shadow Economies III

Smith, Hedrick, 1976, The Russians

Limitations of GDP: Shadow Economies IV

Source: IMF

Limitations of GDP: Compared to What?

  • Again, GDP is a flawed measure

  • But remember, economists always ask, "compared to what?"

  • You will see later on that variation in GDP between countries and over time strongly explain variation in other measures we care about

Do You Know the World Today?

Do You Know the World Today?

In the last 20 years, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty has:

a) Almost doubled

b) Remained more or less the same

c) Almost halved

Do You Know the World Today?

How many of the world’s 1-year-old children today have been vaccinated against some disease?

a) 80%

b) 50%

c) 20%

Do You Know the World Today?

How did the number of deaths per year from natural disasters change over the last hundred years?

a) More than doubled

b) Remained more or less the same

c) Decreased to less than half

Do You Know the World Today?

Where does the majority of the world population live?

a) Low income countries

b) Middle income countries

c) High income countries

Do You Know the World Today?

Worldwide, 30 year old men have spent 10 years in school, on average. How many years have women of the same age spent in school?

a) 9 years

b) 6 years

c) 3 years

Do You Know the World Today?

There are roughly seven billion people in the world today. Which map shows where people live? (Each figure represents 1 billion people.)

Do You Know the World Today?

The United Nations predicts that by 2100 the world population will have increased by another 4 billion people. What is the main reason?

a) There will be more children (under age 15).

b) There will be more adults (15-75).

c) There will be more very old people (above age 75).

Do You Know the World Today?

In low income countries across the world, how many girls finish primary school?

a) 20

b) 40

c) 60

Do You Know the World Today?

How many people in the world have some access to electricity?

a) 20%

b) 50%

c) 80%

Do You Know the World Today?

What is the life expectancy of the world population?

a) 50 years

b) 60 years

c) 70 years

Do You Know the World Today?

  1. What does the global income distribution look like?

Development as Freedom

GDP Ain't Everything

Robert F. Kennedy

1925-1968

Yet the Gross National Product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry, of the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.

It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.

Source: March 18, 1968 Speech

Development as Freedom I

Amartya Sen

1933-

Economics Nobel 1998

Development as Freedom II

Amartya Sen

1933-

Economics Nobel 1998

Insofar as development is concerned with the achievement of a better life, the focus of development analysis has to include the nature of the life that people succeed in living. This incorporates, of course, the length of the life itself, and thus life expectancy data have an immediate relevance to the living standard and through that to the concept of development...People value their ability to do certain things and to achieve certain types of beings (such as being well nourished, being free from avoidable morbidity, being able to move about as desired, and so on). These "doings" and "beings" may be generically called "functionings" of a person. (p15)

Sen, Amartya, 1998, "The Concept of Development," in H. Chenery and T. N. Srinivasan, eds., Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 1, Elsevier Science Publishers.

Development as Freedom: Wealth is a Means, not an End

Aristotle

384 BC-322 BC

The life of money-making is one undertaken under compulsion, and wealth is evidently not the good we are seeking; for it is merely useful and for the sake of something else.

Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics

Development as Freedom: Wealth Happiness

Adam Smith

1723-1790

[H]e begins at last to find that wealth and greatness are mere trinkets of frivolous utility...more troublesome to the person who carries them about with him than all the advantages they can afford him are commodious...The palaces, the gardens, the equipage, the retinue of the great, are objects of which the obvious conveniency strikes every body...He does not even imagine that [the rich and famous] are really happier than other people: but he imagines that they possess more means of happiness...In his heart he curses ambition, and vainly regrets the ease and the indolence of youth, pleasures which are fled for ever, and which he has foolishly sacrificed for what, when he has got it, can afford him no real satisfaction...Power and riches appear then to be, what they are, enormous and operose machines contrived to produce a few trifling conveniencies to the body...which must be kept in order with the most anxious attention, and which in spite of all our care are ready every moment to burst into pieces, and to crush in their ruins their unfortunate possessor. - Part IV, Chapter I

Smith, Adam, 1759, The Theory of Moral Sentiments

Development as Freedom: Overview

Amartya Sen

1933-

Economics Nobel 1998

  • Think about development in terms of "capabilities"

  • Central aspect of well-being is functioning: the freedom of choice and control over one's life

  • Positive freedoms, vs. negative freedoms

    • freedom from hunger
    • freedom from disease
    • freedom from early death
    • freedom from violence
    • freedom from oppression
    • freedom to choose own path
    • ...

Human Development Index II

Human Development Index III

Human Development Index IV

Capabilities, Freedom, and GDP per Capita I

"We do not disagree with either Nussbaum or Sen on the shortcomings of the preoccupation with per capita GDP calculations. However, we believe there is a general pattern to be found between the adoption of the institutions that promote the wealth of a nation and the health and well-being of its people. In other words, life expectancy, infant mortality, educational opportunities, and health outcomes are well correlated with GDP" (p.110).

Boettke, Peter J and J Robert Subrick, 2003, "Rule of Law, Development, and Human Capabilities," Supreme Court Economic Review 10: 109-126

Capabilities, Freedom, and GDP per Capita II

"Our first conjecture is that the rule of law is a significant factor in explaining economic development. This is hardly controversial...Our second conjecture is that economic development is a significant factor in determining increases in what Sen entitles human capabilities... (p.111).

"In short, we expect that the rule of law will increase the level of de- velopment, and the level of development will lead to improvements in human capabilities. That is, the rule of law is an institutional fea- ture that promotes economic development that, in turn, leads to in- creases in those capabilities that Nussbaum and Sen argue are neces- sary for living a human life. Economic development, in short, provides the material pre-requisites that enable human flourishing," (p.112).

Boettke, Peter J and J Robert Subrick, 2003, "Rule of Law, Development, and Human Capabilities," Supreme Court Economic Review 10: 109-126

Capabilities, Freedom, and GDP per Capita III

p. 122

Boettke, Peter J and J Robert Subrick, 2003, "Rule of Law, Development, and Human Capabilities," Supreme Court Economic Review 10: 109-126

Poverty and Basic Human Needs

Extreme Poverty I

Extreme Poverty II

Source: Our World in Data: Extreme Poverty

Extreme Poverty III

Source: Our World in Data: Extreme Poverty

Extreme Poverty IV

Source: Our World in Data: Extreme Poverty

Extreme Poverty V

Source: Our World in Data: Extreme Poverty

Poor Countries are Unhappy

Source: Our World in Data: Extreme Poverty

Basic Human Needs Approach

Gordon's proposed poverty threshold is defined as 2 or more deprivations of:

  • Food deprivation: Body mass index less than 18.5
  • Water deprivation:access only to unimproved source such as open wells, open springs or surface water or who have to walk for more than 15 minutes to their water source (30 minutes round-trip)
  • Deprivation of sanitation facilities: access only to unimproved sanitation facilities
  • Health deprivation: Treatment not recieved for pregnancy, serious illnesses, no knowledge of safe sex practices (esp. HIV/AIDS)
  • Shelter deprivation: living in dwellings with 3 or more people per room (overcrowding) or in a house with no flooring (e.g. a mud floor) or inadequate roofing (e.g. natural roofing materials)
  • Education deprivation: youth who did not complete primary school or who are illiterate
  • Information deprivation: no access to a radio or television (i.e. broadcast media) at home

Source

Inequality

Efficiency and Equality

  • Economists often describe a tradeoff between efficiency and equity in terms of the "economic pie"

  • Efficiency: efforts to grow the pie

  • Equity: efforts to divide the pie fairly

  • Economists tend (not exclusively!) to favor efficiency over equity

(In)equality within Countries: Gini Coefficient I

Source: Our World in Data: Income Inequality

(In)equality within Countries: Gini Coefficient II

Source: Wikipedia

(In)equality within Countries: Lower in Wealthier Countries

Source: Our World in Data: Income Inequality

(In)equality within Countries: But Changing Over Time

Source: Our World in Data: Income Inequality

(In)equality Across Countries Over Time

Source: Our World in Data: Income Inequality

Aside: Equality vs. Equity

Why Development Matters II

William Easterly

1957-

"The majority of the world’s people live in poor nations where women are oppressed, far too many babies die, and far too many people don’t have enough to eat. We care about economic growth for the poor nations because it makes the lives of poor people like those in Gulvera better. Economic growth frees the poor from hunger and disease. Economy-wide GDP growth per capita translates into rising incomes for the poorest of the poor, lifting them out of poverty," (p.8)

Easterly, William, 2010, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics Cambridge: MIT Press

Why Development Matters III

William Easterly

1957-

"The typical rate of infant mortality in the richest fifth of countries is 4 out of every 1,000 births; in the poorest fifth of countries, it is 200 out of every 1,000 births. Parents in the poorest countries are fifty times more likely than in the richest countries to know grief rather than joy from the birth of a child. Researchers have found that a 10 percent decrease in income is associated with about a 6 percent higher infant mortality rate.," (p.9)

"The deaths of about half a million children in 1990 would have been averted if Africa’s growth in the 1980s had been 1.5 percentage points higher," (p.10)

Easterly, William, 2010, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics Cambridge: MIT Press

Why Development Matters IV

William Easterly

1957-

"The improvement in hunger, mortality, and poverty as GDP per capita rises over time motivates us on our quest for growth. Poverty is not just low GDP; it is dying babies, starving children, and oppression of women and the downtrodden. The well-being of the next generation in poor countries depends on whether our quest to make poor countries rich is successful," (pp.14-15)

Easterly, William, 2010, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics Cambridge: MIT Press
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