Economists try to model "an economy" in a way that:
Before we do that (can we?):
How does a market economy work? and grow?
Microeconomic foundations to answer Macroeconomic questions
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"In civilized society [man] stands at all times in need of the cooperation and assistance of great multitudes, while his whole life is scarce sufficient to gain the friendship of a few persons...man has almost constant occasion for the help of his brethren, and it is in vain for him to expect it from their benevolence only," (Book I, Chapter 2.2).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"Whoever offers to another a bargain of any kind, proposes to do this. Give me that which I want, and you shall have this which you want, …and it is in this manner that we obtain from one another the far greater part of those good offices which we stand in need of. It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest," (Book I, Chapter 2.2).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"[Though] he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention…By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it" (Book IV, Chapter 2.9).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"The greatest improvement in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment with which it is any where directed, or applied, seem to have been the effects of the division of labour," (Book I, Chapter 1).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Output performed under the division of labor exceeds output performed in isolation (autarky)
Variation in factor endowments
Variation in production opportunities
Variation in human talents
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"It is but a very small part of a man's wants which the produce of his own labour can supply. He supplies the far greater part of them by exchanging that surplus part of the produce of his own labour, which is over and above his own consumption, for such parts of the produce of other men's labour as he has occasion for. Every man thus lives by exchanging, or becomes in some measure a merchant, and the society itself grows to be what is properly a commercial society," (Book I, Chapter 4).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"To take an example...from a very trifling manufacture...the trade of the pin-maker. [I]n the way in which this business is now carried on, not only the whole work is a peculiar trade, but it is divided into a number of branches, of which the greater part are likewise peculiar trades. One man draws out the wire, another straights it, a third cuts it, a fourth points it, a fifth grinds it at the top for receiving the head...and the important business of making a pin is, in this manner, divided into about eighteen distinct operations...Ten men only were employed [and they] could make among them upwards of forty-eight thousand pins in a day...But if they had all wrought separately and independently [they] certainly could not each of them have made twenty, perhaps not one pin in a day..." (Book I, Chapter 1).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith's pin factory illustration
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"This division of labour, from which so many advantages are derived, is not originally the effect of any human wisdom, which foresees and intends that general opulence to which it gives occasion. It is the necessary, though very slow and gradual, consequence of a certain propensity in human nature which has in view no such extensive utility; the propensity to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another," (Book I, Chapter 2).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith
1723-1790
"As it is the power of exchanging that gives occasion to the division of labour, so the extent of this division must always be limited by...the extent of the market. When the market is very small, no person can have any encouragement to dedicate himself entirely to one employment, for want of the power to exchange all that surplus part of the produce of his own labour, which is over and above his own consumption, for such parts of the produce of other men's labour as he has occasion for," (Book I, Chapter 3).
Smith, Adam, 1776, An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Division of labor: process where people specialize in production and then exchange their produce with others to acquire all of their desired goods
Two senses:
The more trading opportunities, the greater the benefits of specialization
Allyn Young
1876-1929
"The important thing, of course, is that with the division of labour a group of complex processes is transformed into a succession of simpler processes, some of which, at least, lend themselves to the use of machinery. In the use of machinery and the adoption of indirect processes there is a further division of labour, the economies of which are again limited by the extent of the market. It would be wasteful to make a hammer to drive a single nail; it would be better to use whatever awkward implement lies conveniently at hand," (p.530).
Young, Allyn, 1928, "Increasing Returns and Economics Progress," Economic Journal 38(152)
Allyn Young
1876-1929
"It would be wasteful to furnish a factory with an elaborate equipment of specially constructed jigs, gauges, lathes, drills, presses and conveyors to build a hundred automobiles; it would be better to rely mostly upon tools and machines of standard types, so as to make a relatively larger use of directly applied and a relatively smaller use of indirectly-applied labour. [Henry] Ford's methods would be absurdly uneconomical if his output were very small, and would be unprofitable even if his output were what many other manufacturers of automobiles would call large.," (p.530).
Young, Allyn, 1928, "Increasing Returns and Economics Progress," Economic Journal 38(152)
More trading opportunities create economies of scale
Makes large investments in capital & technology profitable
Labor-saving technologies
P. T. Bauer
1915-2002
"In emerging economies the activities of traders promote not only the more efficient deployment of available resources, but also the growth of resources. Trading activities are productive in both static and dynamic senses," (p.4)
"Instead, in spite of the economic history of the now-developed world, which should have been fa- miliar to development economists, trading activities are barely mentioned in the mainstream literature," (p.4)
Bauer, Peter, 2000, "From Subsistence to Exchange," in Bauer, P. T., From Subsistence to Exchange, and Other Essays, Princeton University Press
P. T. Bauer
1915-2002
"Moreover, even a cursory reading of the last hundred years' history ... would have drawn attention to the role of traders in helping to transform them from largely subsistence economies to largely exchange economies," (p.5).
"These investments were made in the context of their decisions, encouraged by the activities of traders, to replace subsistence production by production for the market," (p.6)
Bauer, Peter, 2000, "From Subsistence to Exchange," in Bauer, P. T., From Subsistence to Exchange, and Other Essays, Princeton University Press
P. T. Bauer
1915-2002
"Conditions in the Third World tend to ensure the need for a substantial volume of trading and closely related activities. These activities are more labor intensive than in the West because capital is scarcer relative to labor in poor countries than in rich. A large proportion of producers and consumers operate on a small scale and far from the major commercial centers, including the ports. Individual transactions are small. Individual farmers produce on a small scale and sell in even smaller quantities at frequent intervals because they lack stor- age facilities and substantial cash reserves. Conversely, because of their low incomes, consumers find it convenient or necessary to buy in small, often very small, amounts, again at frequent intervals." (pp.8-9)
Bauer, Peter, 2000, "From Subsistence to Exchange," in Bauer, P. T., From Subsistence to Exchange, and Other Essays, Princeton University Press
P. T. Bauer
1915-2002
"To a Western audience it may seem as if sales of produce and purchases of consumer goods in such small quantities must be wasteful. This is not so...What may be somewhat surprising is that a large part of this labor is self-employed. This is so because entry into small-scale trading is easy...For these reasons small-scale operations are economic in many parts of the distribution system: large firms are at a disadvantage because their operations require more administrative and supervisory personnel, and these tend to be relatively expensive or ineffective in many poor countries. A multiplicity of small-scale traders in part represents the substitution of cheaper labor for more expensive labor," (p.9-10)
Bauer, Peter, 2000, "From Subsistence to Exchange," in Bauer, P. T., From Subsistence to Exchange, and Other Essays, Princeton University Press
P. T. Bauer
1915-2002
"Farmers in poor countries producing for wider exchange have to make in- vestments of various kinds. These investments include the clearing and im- provement of land and the acquisition of livestock and equipment. Such investments constitute capital formation. A part of this capital formation is financed from personal savings and borrowing from traders and others. But much of it is nonmonetized...These forms of investment, when made by small farmers, are generally omitted from official statistics and are still largely ignored in both the aca- demic and the official development literature. [But] these categories of investment are critical in the advance from subsistence to exchange." (pp.11-12)
Bauer, Peter, 2000, "From Subsistence to Exchange," in Bauer, P. T., From Subsistence to Exchange, and Other Essays, Princeton University Press
Consider if there are multiple different prices for same good:
Arbitrage opportunities: optimizing individuals recognize profit opportunity:
Entrepreneurship: recognizing profit opportunities and entering a market as a seller to try to capture gains from trade/innovation
Mark Zuckerberg
1984-
"Why were we the ones to build [Facebook]? We were just students. We had way fewer resources than big companies. If they had focused on this problem, they could have done it. The only answer I can think of is: we just cared more. While some doubted that connecting the world was actually important, we were building. While others doubted that this would be sustainable, we were forming lasting connections."
Nobody knows "the right price" for things
Buyers and sellers only know their own reservation prices
Buyers and sellers adjust bids/asks
Markets do not start competitive, but monopolistic!
New entrepreneurs enter to try to capture gains from trade/innovation
As these gains are exhausted, prices converge to equilibrium
Errors and imperfect information ⟹ multiple prices
Markets are discovery processes that discover the right prices, the optimal uses of resources, and cheapest production methods, none of which can be known in advance!
Consider the economy as a cat-and-mouse game between two sets of variables:
Induced variables always chasing underlying variables
IF underlying variables froze, market would rest at equilibrium
Why do we trade?
Resources are in the wrong place!
People have better uses of resources than they are currently being used!
Why are resources in the wrong place?
We have the same stuff but different preferences
Why are resources in the wrong place?
We have the same stuff and/but different preferences
With high transaction costs, resources cannot be traded
Resources cannot be switched to higher-valued uses
If others value goods higher than their current owners, resources are inefficiently allocated!
Markets are institutions that facilitate voluntary impersonal exchange and reduce transaction costs
There's a lot of institutions in the "bundle" we call "markets":
All of these things are assumed when we draw nice supply & demand graphs on the blackboard
Problem 1: Resources have multiple uses and are rivalrous
Problem 2: Different people have different subjective valuations for uses of resources
It is inefficient (immoral?) to use a resource in a way that prevents someone else who values it more from using it!
Problem 1: Resources have multiple uses that are rivalrous
Problem 2: Different people have different subjective valuations for uses of resources
It is inefficient (immoral?) to use a resource in a way that prevents someone else who values it more from using it!
Solution: Prices in a functioning market accurately measure opportunity cost of using resources in a particular way
Voluntary exchange is a Pareto improvement: change in allocation that makes at least one person better off and making nobody worse off
An allocation of resources is Pareto efficient when there are no possible Pareto improvements
Pareto efficiency is conceptual gold standard: allow all welfare-improving exchanges so long as nobody gets harmed
In practice: Pareto efficiency is a first best solution
Kaldor-Hicks Improvement: an action improves efficiency its generates more social gains than losses
Kaldor-Hicks efficiency: no potential Kaldor-Hicks improvements exist
Keeps intuitive appeal of Pareto but more practical
Consider policies where winners' maximum WTP > losers' minimum WTA
Policies should maximize social value of resources
Allocative efficiency: resources are allocated to highest-valued uses
Pareto efficient: no possible Pareto improvements exist
All potential gains from trade are fully exhausted
Economic surplus = Consumer surplus + Producer surplus
Maximized in competitive equilibrium
Resources flow away from those who value them the lowest to those that value them the highest
The 1st Fundamental Welfare Theorem: markets in competitive equilibrium maximize allocative efficiency of resources and are Pareto efficient
Markets are great when they:
Are Competitive: many buyers and many sellers
Reach equilibrium: absence of transactions costs or policies preventing prices from adjusting to meet supply and demand
No externalities are present: costs and benefits are fully internalized by the parties to transactions
Neoclassical economists and market socialists (Lange, Lerner, Bergson, etc) disagree with nothing so far
Argued that central planning can replicate the optimal outcomes of markets in competitive equilibrium without the problems
Prices as sufficient statistics in static equilibrium
Efficiency of prices: function in equilibrium market-clearing & achieving Pareto optimality
When prices changes, they don't lose their parametric function, and every individual always takes "the price" as given (price-taking behavior)
Competition: an optimal end-state:
If you find the right vector of prices, given consumer preferences and given production functions, you can calculate this optimal outcome!
Competition is not an optimal end-state, it is a discovery process!
Competition is not a noun, it's a verb!
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"Planning in the specific sense in which the term is used in contemporary controversy necessarily means central planning - direction of the whole economic system according to one unified plan. Competition, on the other hand, means decentralized planning by many separate persons," (pp.519-520).
Hayek, F. A., 1945, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate given resources if given is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these data. It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality," (pp.519-520).
Hayek, F. A., 1945, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"Which of the systems is likely to be more efficient...depends on whether we are more likely to succeed in putting at the disposal of a single central authority all the knowledge which ought to be used but which is initially dispersed among many different individuals, or in conveying to the individuals such additional knowledge as they need in order to enable them to fit their plans with those of others," (pp.519-520).
Hayek, F. A., 1945, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"The marvel is that in a case like that of a scarcity of a raw material, without an order being issued, without more than perhaps a handful of people knowing the cause, tens of thousands of people whose identity could not be ascertained by months of investigation, are made to use the material or its products more sparingly," (pp.527).
Hayek, F. A., 1945, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"The problem arises because one of the most important forces which in a truly competitive economy brings about the reduction of costs to the minimum discoverable will be absent, namely, price competition...[T]he question is frequently treated as if the cost curves were objectively given facts. What is forgotten is that the method which under given conditions is the cheapest is a thing which has to be discovered, and to be discovered anew, sometimes almost from day to day, by the entrepreneur, and that, in spite of the strong inducement, it is by no means regularly the established entrepreneur, the man in charge of the existing plant, who will discover what is the best method," (p.196).
Hayek, F. A., 1948, "Socialist Calculation II: The Competitive Solution," Individualism and Economic Order
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"The force which in a competitive society brings about the reduction of price to the lowest cost...is the opportunity for anybody who knows a cheaper method to come in at his own risk and to attract customers by underbidding the existing producers. But, if prices are fixed by the authority, this method is excluded," (p.196).
Hayek, F. A., 1948, "Socialist Calculation II: The Competitive Solution," Individualism and Economic Order
Prices are knowledge surrogates in dynamic disequilibrium
Efficiency of prices: use distributed knowledge and incentivize local actors to exploit opportunities, which reduce error and bring about greater social coordination
Prices are never "given", prices emerge dynamically from negotiation and market decisions of entrepreneurs and consumers
Competition: is a discovery process which discovers what consumer preferences are and what technologies are lowest cost, and how to allocate resources accordingly
A relatively high price
Information conveyed: good is relatively scarce
Incentivizes:
A relatively low price
Information conveyed: good is relatively abundant
Incentivizes:
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"The most significant fact about this system is the economy of knowledge with which it operates...by a kind of symbol [the price], only the most essential information is passed on and passed on only to those concerned...The marvel is that in a case like that of a scarcity of a raw material, without an order being issued, without more than perhaps a handful of people knowing the cause, tens of thousands of people whose identity could not be ascertained by months of investigation, are made to use the material or its products more sparingly," (p.527).
Hayek, F. A., 1945, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530
F. A. Hayek
1899-1992
Economics Nobel 1974
"Today it is almost heresy to suggest that scientific knowledge is not the sum of all knowledge. But a little reflection will show that there is beyond question a body of very important but unorganized knowledge which cannot possibly be called scientific in the sense of knowledge of general rules: the knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place. It is with respect to this that practically every individual has some advantage over all others in that he possesses unique information of which beneficial use might be made, but of which use can be made only if the decisions depending on it are left to him or are made with his active cooperation," (pp.521-522).
Hayek, F. A., 1945, "The Use of Knowledge in Society," American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530
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